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What does winning mean? Plaid Cymru 02-05-2026 by
Eoghan Kelly Plaid Cymru look set to take up the first minister position in the newly overhauled Senedd for the first time. But, there is a lot still up in the air.
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Same Old Lib Dems 14-04-2026 by
Eoghan Kelly A tour of the Lib Dems chances in both Scotland & Wales. We've also discussed Reform's chances in Scotland and the Scottish Greens.
- Prepping for Opposition: Reform in Wales
12-04-2026 by
Eoghan Kelly The third in our party by party analysis. Last time I discussed Reform in Scotland, and I've talked about the Scottish Greens here.
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How Much of a Breakthrough? Reform in Scotland 06-04-2026 by
Eoghan Kelly The second in our party by party analysis. Last time I discussed the guaranteed polling miss for the Greens, this time it's the unknown quantity that is Reform.
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A Polling Miss Foretold: The Scottish Greens 04-04-2026 by
Eoghan Kelly The first in a series of blogs about the state of the parties, starting with the Scottish Greens.
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Devolved Elections & ElectHer 30-03-2026 by
Eoghan Kelly Devolved Elections is delighted to announce a partnership with ElectHer to project the number of female candidates for the upcoming Scottish and Welsh elections.
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Land Doesn't Vote - Hexmaps 26-01-2026 by
Eoghan Kelly We're adding Hexmaps to make our results easier to understand, ensuring all constituencies are equally visible.
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Northern Ireland Polling Error Analysis 02-10-2025 by
Eoghan Kelly Interactive analysis showing 1000 simulations of possible NI Assembly outcomes within polling margin of error, with distribution charts and bloc analysis
- Wales Polling Error Analysis
02-10-2025 by
Eoghan Kelly Interactive analysis showing 1000 simulations of possible Welsh Senedd outcomes within polling margin of error, with spectrum and constitutional distribution charts
- Scotland Polling Error Analysis
02-10-2025 by
Eoghan Kelly Interactive analysis showing 1000 simulations of possible Scottish Parliament outcomes within polling margin of error, with spectrum and constitutional distribution charts
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2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test 19-08-2025 by
Lewis Norton Lewis Norton reviews the perspectives for the Welsh and Scottish Conservatives in the 2026 elections.
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A DevolvedElection Experiment: A Single Unionist Party 15-08-2025 by
Eoghan Kelly A test of how a Single Unionist Party could perform in a Stormont election.
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Coalition Formation 01-07-2025 by
Eoghan Kelly We’ve just launched a new coalition tool for our Scottish & Welsh projections. These let you see some of the options that could exist for forming a majority based on your projections...
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Civic Tech for Non-Experts: Building Tools That Actually Help 26-06-2025 by
Ayushi Gupta We're a couple with complementary interests: my partner is the politics brain behind devolvedelections.co.uk, and I’m the one who builds and maintains the site....
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Introducing our London Assembly Projection 26-06-2025 by
Eoghan Kelly This is the first projection of the next election of the London Assembly which plays an important role in governing one of Europe’s largest cities...
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Inverting the Projection on the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse By-Election Result 06-06-2025 by
Eoghan Kelly A quick experiment to see how Scottish Election 2026 could look if the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election was replicated nationwide...
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Prospects for Reform 03-06-2025 by
Eoghan Kelly The 2026 Senedd and Scottish Parliamentary elections are set to be the largest test of Reform’s support before the next general election...
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An Introduction to the Projection 29-05-2025 by
Eoghan Kelly For the first time Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will all be using different electoral systems. This is a quick explainer of what they are and how the projection deals with each...
