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Analysis & Explainers
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Where do Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland stand on the constitutional question? 15-09-2026 by Eoghan KellyHow support for Scottish independence, Welsh independence and Irish reunification has moved over time. -
What does winning mean? Plaid Cymru 02-05-2026 by Eoghan KellyPlaid Cymru look set to take up the first minister position in the newly overhauled Senedd for the first time. But, there is a lot still up in the air. -
Same Old Lib Dems 14-04-2026 by Eoghan KellyA tour of the Lib Dems chances in both Scotland & Wales. We've also discussed Reform's chances in Scotland and the Scottish Greens. - Prepping for Opposition: Reform in Wales 12-04-2026 by Eoghan KellyThe third in our party by party analysis. Last time I discussed Reform in Scotland, and I've talked about the Scottish Greens here.
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How Much of a Breakthrough? Reform in Scotland 06-04-2026 by Eoghan KellyThe second in our party by party analysis. Last time I discussed the guaranteed polling miss for the Greens, this time it's the unknown quantity that is Reform. -
A Polling Miss Foretold: The Scottish Greens 04-04-2026 by Eoghan KellyThe first in a series of blogs about the state of the parties, starting with the Scottish Greens. -
Devolved Elections & ElectHer 30-03-2026 by Eoghan KellyDevolved Elections is delighted to announce a partnership with ElectHer to project the number of female candidates for the upcoming Scottish and Welsh elections. -
Land Doesn't Vote - Hexmaps 26-01-2026 by Eoghan KellyWe're adding Hexmaps to make our results easier to understand, ensuring all constituencies are equally visible. -
Northern Ireland Polling Error Analysis 02-10-2025 by Eoghan KellyInteractive analysis showing 1000 simulations of possible NI Assembly outcomes within polling margin of error, with distribution charts and bloc analysis - Wales Polling Error Analysis 02-10-2025 by Eoghan KellyInteractive analysis showing 1000 simulations of possible Welsh Senedd outcomes within polling margin of error, with spectrum and constitutional distribution charts
- Scotland Polling Error Analysis 02-10-2025 by Eoghan KellyInteractive analysis showing 1000 simulations of possible Scottish Parliament outcomes within polling margin of error, with spectrum and constitutional distribution charts
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2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test 19-08-2025 by Lewis NortonLewis Norton reviews the perspectives for the Welsh and Scottish Conservatives in the 2026 elections. -
A DevolvedElection Experiment: A Single Unionist Party 15-08-2025 by Eoghan KellyA test of how a Single Unionist Party could perform in a Stormont election. -
Coalition Formation 01-07-2025 by Eoghan KellyWe’ve just launched a new coalition tool for our Scottish & Welsh projections. These let you see some of the options that could exist for forming a majority based on your projections... -
Civic Tech for Non-Experts: Building Tools That Actually Help 26-06-2025 by Ayushi GuptaWe're a couple with complementary interests: my partner is the politics brain behind devolvedelections.co.uk, and I’m the one who builds and maintains the site.... -
Introducing our London Assembly Projection 26-06-2025 by Eoghan KellyThis is the first projection of the next election of the London Assembly which plays an important role in governing one of Europe’s largest cities... -
Inverting the Projection on the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse By-Election Result 06-06-2025 by Eoghan KellyA quick experiment to see how Scottish Election 2026 could look if the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election was replicated nationwide... -
Prospects for Reform 03-06-2025 by Eoghan KellyThe 2026 Senedd and Scottish Parliamentary elections are set to be the largest test of Reform’s support before the next general election... -
An Introduction to the Projection 29-05-2025 by Eoghan KellyFor the first time Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will all be using different electoral systems. This is a quick explainer of what they are and how the projection deals with each...