Against the backdrop of the Conservatives’ decisive defeat in the 2024 General Election, the 2026 elections for the Senedd Cymru / Welsh Parliament and the Scottish Parliament are set to be the biggest test of the Conservatives’ efforts to rebuild.
London-centric media is likely to define the 2026 elections as a test of Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, a potentially unfair framing which ignores the importance of the devolved party structures and leadership figures. Both the Welsh and Scottish Conservatives have elected new leaders in the last year. Darren Millar was elected unopposed as the leader of the Welsh Conservatives (a position that technically does not exist) in December 2024 following Andrew RT Davies’ resignation despite narrowly surviving a vote of no confidence in the Welsh Conservative Senedd group.
In Scotland, Russell Findlay was elected the leader of the Scottish Conservatives in September 2024, winning 62% of the vote in a drawn-out leadership election triggered by Douglas Ross stepping down. The results of these elections are likely to set the tone for the Conservatives as they look further ahead to the 2029 General Election, and aim to repel Reform’s advances into their electorate.
The Welsh Conservatives – A Recovery from Wipeout?
There is perhaps nowhere that the Conservatives’ defeat in the 2024 General Election was more striking than in Wales. The Welsh Conservatives lost all the impressive gains they had made in 2019, and ended up with zero seats in Wales.
This however, is largely the result of the distortive effects of the First Past The Post electoral system. The wipeout of seats covers the fact that the Conservatives actually came second in the popular vote in Wales with 18% – by no means an impressive figure, but still significant.
It has long been recognised that the Welsh Conservatives have benefitted from the use of the Additional Member System at devolved level. In 2021, the Welsh Conservatives achieved their strongest result in Wales, claiming 16 seats with 25% of the regional vote, placing them as the official opposition in the Senedd. While a significant amount of these gains came off the back of the decline of UKIP from 2016, it showcases the strengths of the party in Wales against the prevailing narrative that Wales is antithetical to the Conservative Party.
The Senedd will be adopting a new electoral system for 2026, moving to a Closed List Proportional Representation system, with 16 large constituencies electing 6 representatives using the D’Hondt formula, as the Senedd expands from 60 to 96 members. The Welsh Conservatives have been steadfast in their opposition to these reforms, particularly the additional members – the only mainstream party in Wales to do so. The reformed system however, has implications for a party that will be eager to retain representation amid their current decline, potentially either amplifying small swings in their favour or further diluting their support.
Current Welsh Nowcast
According to DevolvedElections’ Nowcast, the Welsh Conservatives are in for a challenging 2026 election, with the party falling to only 6 seats in an expanded Senedd. The areas where the party are expected to retain representation are in the areas where the party had a relatively strong presence, such as parts of North East and South East Wales, and areas like Newport and the Vale of Glamorgan.
However, there are a couple of points to consider with a projection this low. Firstly, the allocation of the ‘sixth seats’ in constituencies is likely to be incredibly marginal, meaning that small changes in the popular vote could have a noticeable impact on seat allocation, potentially in favour of the Conservatives. For example, a 3% vote swing from Reform to the Conservatives would increase their projected number of seats from 6 to 10. Secondly, the current predicted vote share of 11.1% is particularly low in the context of polling in the last 12 months, where they have been between 10-19%, showing how there is scope for their position to improve if support reverts closer to the higher end of their recent polling range.
The Scottish Conservatives – Holding Ground?
While the Conservatives’ dismal General Election performance was felt across the whole UK, unlike in Wales, the results in Scotland were much less glaring. While their share of the popular vote did tumble from 25% to 13%, the party only lost one of its six seats, holding on to their strong ground in the Scottish borders and Aberdeenshire.
Just like Wales, Scotland has used the Additional Member System since the beginning of the Scottish Parliament. But Scotland allocates a greater proportion of its seats to the regional list than Wales did, which amplifies the benefit to the Scottish Conservatives.
Also unlike Wales, the Scottish Parliament will not be undergoing any electoral system changes for 2026, and so comparisons with previous elections are much clearer cut. In 2021, the Scottish Conservatives achieved their joint best result in a Scottish Parliamentary election, winning 31 seats as they had done in 2016 (26 seats coming from the regional list) with 23.5% of the regional vote, becoming the official opposition. Likewise with the 2021 Senedd election, this demonstrated the appeal of the Conservatives in areas of Scotland
Current Scottish Nowcast
Using the current Scottish Nowcast, the Scottish Conservatives look set to fall to 13 seats. The Nowcast’s projections reflect the same defences as 2024, with the constituency seats the Conservatives are projected to retain being close races with the SNP and Reform in the Scottish Borders, Eastwood and Aberdeenshire. Meanwhile, the party is reduced to one seat in each regional list, except for South Scotland where they get zero, and the Highlands and Islands, and Mid Scotland and Fife where they get two.
The current Nowcast popular vote share of 12.6% in the regional vote is similarly on the lower end of where polling for the Scottish Conservatives has been in the last 12 months, with the party polling more consistently around 13-16%. This again, shows some of the ground that can realistically be clawed back in a short amount of time.
Concluding Thoughts
The challenges facing the Conservatives in Wales and Scotland are markedly similar. Both the Scottish and Welsh Conservatives are defending record high election results in 2021, on the back of a catastrophic result in the 2024 General Election.
Current projections may offer little comfort for Conservatives in either nation, but it is lazy journalism to simply suggest that the party is doomed and to end all analysis there. 2026 will act as a test of the Conservatives’ fortitude, with an active grassroots base and leadership structures in each nation, of which their main rival, Reform UK, does not yet fully possess, which potentially makes their polling gains more volatile.
The 2021 results achieved by the Conservatives, particularly in Scotland where the electoral system remains unchanged, provide a useful reference point for the areas where they have historically performed strongest, and could do so again, even as the political landscape has shifted. The new electoral system and expanded membership in Wales does introduce an element of uncertainty as the 2026 election draws closer, while Scottish projections can offer a more direct metric of party support.
There ultimately remains headroom for improvement from these low projections if the Conservatives can reclaim lost Reform voters, but with both parties defending high peaks from 2021, it may be inevitable in these heightened political conditions that the party suffers losses.