Try our new Electoral Reform tool
Westminster Projection
Input your expected vote shares for all parties to see how many seats they could win or use our quick presets. This creates a complete constituency level projection for all parts of the UK, but you can select a country or region of England instead. Our Nowcast is an average of recent polls which will update frequently but there may be a lag in the data.
You can enter any set of numbers, just make sure they sum to 100%. This a projection and will not be 100% accurate, but it is a useful tool to see how different vote shares could translate into seats. We attempt to account for tactical voting but this will be imperfect as the tactical behaviour of individuals in so many constituencies and with so many parties is extraodinarily difficult.
For more info click here.
England Voting Intention
Northern Ireland Voting Intention
Scotland Voting Intention
There has only been 2 Scotland-only Westminster polls so far, so this average blends Westminster polls (filled dots) with Holyrood constituency polls (hollow dots). Once there have been enough Westminster polls we will only use those.
Wales Voting Intention
London Voting Intention
Seat Projection Over Time
The chart below shows each party's mean projected seats from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the nowcast, updated daily. The darker shading covers 50% of the distribution, and the lighter shading extends to 95%. Large jumps/drops in the average number of seats is usually linked to the addition of a new poll to our database. Parties whose daily mean never exceeds 3 seats are excluded for clarity. This chart began on October 9th, 2026.
Hover over a party's line or name to show its range. Click to keep it shown.
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