Scottish Independence Calculator

Explore how undecided voters and various demographic groups could affect the outcome of a potential second Scottish independence referendum. Media reports tend to 'exclude' undecided votes by distributing them equally to each side. In the real world undecided voters are very unlikely to split perfectly 50-50, but the exact ratio and direction is unknown. A good campaign can tip them in your side's favour, whilst a poor campaign can push people away. This tool lets you see the ways in which a second independence referendum could be won and lost. It also shows how sensitive the result is to changes in demographics and the impact of undecided votes. We have set the default numbers to the current polling average with undecided voters equally divided within each group. The starting numbers are based on the 2024 Scottish Election Study, 2022 Census and polling data. You can change the demographics, party breakdowns, and turnout to see how it affects the result. We have made as few assumptions as possible to allow you to explore the data. Initially, turnout is set at 85%, based on the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum. The 2026 Scottish Parliament election saw 53.4% turnout. You can also click the quick adjusts to move the needle 1% to the Yes or No side.

Quick AdjustiAdds 1% uniformly across all parties and demographics

Undecided50% Indy / 50% Union

Parties

SNP100% Indy / 0% Union

Labour24% Indy / 76% Union

Conservatives9% Indy / 91% Union

Liberal Democrats21% Indy / 79% Union

Greens93% Indy / 7% Union

Reform19% Indy / 81% Union

OtheriOther includes a diverse range of smaller parties and independents including Alba and the Family Party.78% Indy / 22% Union

Non-votersiNon-voters are only included when turnout exceeds 64%.45% Indy / 55% Union

Gender

Male54% Indy / 46% Union

Female48% Indy / 52% Union

Age

18-2469% Indy / 31% Union

25-3456% Indy / 44% Union

35-4957% Indy / 43% Union

50-6446% Indy / 54% Union

65+35% Indy / 65% Union

Class

ABC159% Indy / 41% Union

C2DE39% Indy / 61% Union

Education

Low42% Indy / 58% Union

Medium47% Indy / 53% Union

High58% Indy / 42% Union

Urban-Rural

Urban52% Indy / 48% Union

Town50% Indy / 50% Union

Rural47% Indy / 53% Union

TurnoutiTurnout was 85% at the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum

Overall Turnout85%

Results

Pro-Indy50.9%

50.9%

Union49.1%

49.1%

Constituency Hexmap

Each hexagon represents one constituency. Hover for details. Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to pan when zoomed.

This map is more of a guide to geographic differences than a proper constituency level projection. The initial positions are formed from the results of the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections, polling trends and the party sliders.

This is not a predictive tool and we do not endorse either Scottish independence or remaining within the United Kingdom. The intention of this tool is visualise the societal shifts that may influence results. Vote shares, demographic data and independence polls come from recent polling from a variety of groups. We played no role in commissioning any of the polls used in this analysis.

Polling Trends

The chart below shows polling trends for Scottish Independence over time. Data is sourced from various polling companies and uses a rolling six month average.