We have launched a new update to our NI projection which adds even more new candidates to parties with enough votes. Initially this was limited to just 1 more person, but now we can have as many as are needed.
This means we can test how successful the much discussed Single Unionist Party (SUP) could be.
To run this test I’ve added together all the votes of the DUP, UUP, TUV and half the Independents (to account for Claire Sugden) and given their votes to the DUP. All the other parties will be held constant.
I’ve picked the DUP because they’re the centre of the three main unionist options which means that, on average, their transfer ratios are better set up for this test than the TUV or UUP.
When you see DUP in the graphics, read SUP (I didn’t redo the whole chicanery just for this experiment).
Nuance (and lack thereof)
In real life some people who currently vote for the UUP, DUP and TUV would refuse to back the SUP whilst some people who support Alliance and others would vote for SUP. Transfers would also be different, the DUP are probably the closest overall, but in real life there’d likely be a lot of localised differences based on which party the candidates came from.
For the purpose of this experiment I’m choosing to ignore all that nuance because any guess I make will be equally as open to criticism as this one, but at least this is based on polling by LT. If you want to game it out your own version of this please go for it.
Now. On with the test.
Results
As expected, the SUP would be way out ahead on 38 seats but wouldn’t necessarily do any better than the combined seats totals of the DUP, TUV and UUP (38). This is because STV is proportional and transfers between unionist parties tend to come back to fellow unionists.
SUP win 38 seats, 13 ahead of Sinn Féin
To a large degree they'd just mop up existing unionist seats but unity could tip the balance in Belfast West but could open a bit more of a gap for Alliance to hold their seat in North Antrim. These are the only differences between the experiment and the Nowcast.
Full Seats by Constituency
The SUP coming first overall would mean they’d get the First Minister rather than the deputy First Minister, but since the two are identical in all but name, there’s no limited meaningful difference.
SUP would get 5 executive seats, but the current Nowcast already has 5 unionists getting executive seats (DUP 3, UUP 1, TUV 1), if the TUV refused their Executive seat Alliance would get it as they're next up in the list. For this bit I’ve assumed Alliance would keep the Justice Ministry because any other assumption is even more questionable.
Executive Formation with a SUP
Summary
A SUP would not help unionism at Stormont elections because STV makes it a bit unnecessary and would probably not solve any of unionism's internal divisions. That said, a SUP would definitely help at Westminster because FPTP encourages pacts, so an arrangement of a permanent Westminster pact but competition at Stormont could work. The Bloc Quebecois have done this for decades in Canada so it’s not unheard of.
SUP would beat a split nationalist vote in 11/18 seats across the East of NI, although a unified nationalist candidate would beat SUP in Belfast North. While Belfast South and Mid Down would probably stay Nationalist too, on the back of tactical support from Green and Alliance voters.
The SUP win across the Eastern half of NI