Scotland Polling Error Analysis
Below are the summary results of running 1000 simulations of the Scottish Parliament election using our Margin of Error preset. It uses randomised vote shares centred around the current polling average shown in our Nowcast. It then applies a further layer of variation by tweaking every party's swing in every constituency based on local factors, including geographical alrea, urban/rural characteristics, and support for independence in the 2014 referendum.
This aims to demonstrate the degree of uncertainty that's inevitable in election projections and show how even small polling errors, regional factors or candidate effects can lead to significantly different outcomes. In many cases the difference between an excellent year for a party and a terrible year is well within a normal polling error.
Results are based on latest polling and are updated regularly. The most recent update was on 22 October 2025
Political Spectrum Distribution
Distribution of seats across the political spectrum in 1000 simulations. Left includes SNP, Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Greens. Right includes Conservatives and Reform.
Constitutional Preference Distribution
Distribution of seats by constitutional preference in 1000 simulations. Pro Indy includes SNP, Greens, and Alba. Unionist includes Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Reform.
Seat Distribution by Party
The following charts show the distribution of outcomes for each party across all 1000 simulations. Taller peaks indicate more likely outcomes while 'tails' indicate extreme outcomes which would require large polling errors. The dashed line shows the Nowcast prediction for comparison.
Hover over the points to see how many times each occurred out of the 1000 simulations. There tends to be less variation amongst very small parties as there are fewer places in which they have a reasonable chance of winning a seat.
Having a tall but narrow distribution means that a party has several solid seats which are very safe but weaker elsewhere. This can prevent them from falling too far but also means that growth is difficult.
A shorter, broader distribution means that a party has a mix of seats which are safe, at risk, and in with a chance of gaining. This can allow for growth but also puts them at risk of collapse.
SNP
Labour
Reform
Conservatives
Greens
Liberal Democrats
Alba
Other
Constituency Seat Probabilities
Each square represents a constituency seat, ordered by that party's likelihood of winning it. Darker squares indicate safer seats, medium coloured squares indicate battleground seats, whilst very light coloured seats would require a big polling miss for that party to win.
Hover over a square for details.
List seats are awarded as compensation to parties which didn't win enough constituencies. As a result, winning more constituencies can mean winning fewer list seats.
SNP69 potential seats
Labour20 potential seats
Reform12 potential seats
Liberal Democrats9 potential seats
Greens7 potential seats
Conservatives5 potential seats
This simulation uses a normal distribution of errors from the polling average which means that parties are just as likely to overperform as they are to underperform their average. The vast majority of misses will have each party's vote share within 2% of the Nowcast but there will be some rare instances where the misses are much larger. The bigger the miss, the less likely it is to occur. This means that most results stay close to current polling averages, but occasional larger deviations are possible. This analysis will be updated as new polls arrive.