Scottish Parliamentary Election Projection

Preset Examples

* Generates random vote shares close to the nowcast to simulate polling error, most are similar to the Nowcast but there can be some outliers. It changes every time you click it and includes random variations between constituencies based on local factors. You can run 1000 random simulations here

Input your projected vote shares for each party

Disclaimer

This is not an official prediction. Instead, it is an educational tool to visualise how the 2026 election results could look under certain scenarios. Currently, there are some particularly unusual scenarios that the model struggles to project.
The numbers here are a projection based on proportional swing from an amended version of nominal results created by BallotBoxScotland but there are other methods which could be used to create projections. The results here should not be taken as fact as there are likely to be some specific candidates who over and under perform for personal reasons. There may also be local issues, regional variation, fine margins and strategic voting which are very difficult to model. If you’d like to find out more about how AMS works please read this BBC article on AMS. To find your constituency visit Boundaries Scotland, or to register to vote visit mygov.scot.