Click on any of the below to create your own devolved election projection
Welcome!
The goal of this project is not to create perfect projections across every devolved election. Instead it aims to create a realistic estimate of results so people can better visualise how each electoral system works to gain a clearer understanding of how votes translate into seats.
This is particularly important now as Wales changes its voting system, meaning that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will all use different systems for the first time. This website has sought to reasonably and realistically represent each one for educational purposes.
Our projections are non-partisan and neutral, we aim to replicate potential results as accurately as possible so have absolutely no interest in making any party appear to be doing better or worse on our website. Our blogs may contain opinions.
Summary of Targets
This project will be successful if, after the actual results are inputted:
- 85% of Scottish constituencies are correct (62 seats). The compensatory list should mean that the total seat share will be even closer than this - to around about the 95% mark.
- 95% of constituency seats are correct in Northern Ireland (81 seats) - the order in which seats are awarded isn’t important to these targets.
- 95% of list seats are correct in Wales (86 seats) - again, the order in which seats are awarded isn’t important.
- In London, where the system is similar to Scotland but fewer constituencies. We’d aim to get 90% of constituencies and 95% overall.
NowCast
We will be updating the Nowcast preset as new polls come in. This is a simple average of recent polls. The number of polls in each one will vary because some places (Scotland) tend to receive more polls than others (Northern Ireland). As a general rule the more polls that are included in the average the better, especially if they take a variety of approaches and are done at around the same time.
Averages work by effectively reducing out the margin of error which creates a result which is less affected by small variations in each poll. If the polls are close to the actual result then great, if they’re far away then the Nowcast will be off. It’s important to say here that we don’t commission any polls and do not weigh based on whether we think a poll is better than others nor do we recommend any particular polling companies.
We take a broad approach to which polls we accept as there is no consistent evidence that any particular methodology is better than the others. We do retain the right to exclude polling companies at our discretion. As a rule, we will only step in and exclude polls if we feel they are particularly poor quality in terms of methodology. We will include polls with outlying results as they can sometimes be the canary in the coalmine.
Do not use this as a guide for betting and the results of the Nowcast do not constitute the official expectations of DevolvedElections. If we decide to make an official projection we will announce it as such.
But still don’t bet based on that!
Get involved
Play around with the projections and send us anything you think is odd, they’re supposed to be able to handle a lot of out-there numbers but they’re not invincible.
You can also suggest things for us to cover on our blog and we’re happy to be a platform for anyone with an interest in devolution or elections to express their own views. Please feel free to pitch ideas at: devolvedelections@gmail.com